经济学人217:人口统计学 时髦与蹒跚齐行

 　　Demography 1

　　人口统计学
　　Hip 2 and hobbling
　　时髦与蹒跚齐行
　　Not all towns are desperate to attract young people
　　并不是所有城镇都渴望吸引年轻人
　　Nationally, an ageing population is a problem. But locally it can be a boon 3. The over-50s control 80% of Britain's wealth, and like to spend it on houses and high-street shopping. The young “generation rent”, by contrast, is poor, distractible and liable to shop online.
　　在国际上，人口老龄化是个问题。但在地方范围内，这可能是个福音。在英国，50岁以上的人群掌握着80%的财富，并乐于将这些财富用于购置房产和商场购物。相比而言，年轻的“租房一代”经济比较拮据，很容易分心，且依赖网上购物。
　　People aged 4 between 50 and 74 spend twice as much as the under-30s on cinema tickets. Between 2000 and 2010 restaurant spending by those aged 65-74 increased by 33%, while the under-30s spent 18% less. The pension pots liberated 5 by George Osborne's budget earlier this year will likely pour into property. And while the young still struggle to find work, older people are retiring later. During the financial crisis full-time 6 employment fell for every age group but the over-65s, and there has been a rash of older entrepreneurs. Pensioners 7 also support the working population by volunteering: some 100 retirees in Christchurch help out as business mentors 8.
　　年龄在50到74岁之间的人群花在电影票上的钱是30岁以下人群的两倍之多。在2000年到2010年间，65到74岁人群的餐厅费用增长了33%，而30岁以下人群则减少了18%。今年年初因乔治·奥斯本的新财政预算案而被释放的养老金池将很可能大量涌入流通市场。当年轻人还在找工作的苦海中挣扎时，老年人的退休年龄却越来越推后了。金融危机期间，各个年龄阶层的全职工作率都降低了，只有65岁以上的人群没有受到影响，并且还出现了大批的老年企业家。领取养老金的人还通过志愿服务来帮助工作人群：克莱斯特彻奇就有约100名退休人员志愿成为企业导师。
　　城镇.jpg
　　Even if they wanted to, most small towns and cities could not capture the cool kids. Mobile young professionals cluster, and greatly prefer to cluster in London. Even supposed meccas like Manchester are ageing: clubs in that city are becoming members-only, and there are an increasing number of places, as one resident puts it, that “a 19-year-old wouldn't be seen dead in”. Towns that aim too young, like Bracknell and Chippenham, can find their high streets full of closed La Senzas (a lingerie chain) and struggling tattoo 9 parlours. Outside Britain's capital, high concentrations of youth are commonly tied to high unemployment rates.
　　即使很多小城镇希望吸引年轻人，它们也做不到。流动的年轻人喜欢扎堆，尤其是喜欢聚集在伦敦。即使是像曼彻斯特这样所谓的麦加圣地也在逐渐老龄化：城市里的俱乐部正转向会员制，正如一个当地居民所说，越来越多的地方“看不到一个十九岁的少年在其中醉生梦死”。像布拉科内尔和切本哈姆这样定位于年龄过小的年轻人的城市，很容易发现自己的商业区满是倒闭的La Senzas（一内衣连锁店）和艰难经营的纹身室。在英国首都之外，年轻人的聚集通常都与高失业率捆绑在一起。
　　Companies often lag behind local authorities in working this out. They are London-obsessed, and have been slow to appreciate the growing economic heft of the old—who are assumed, often wrongly, to stick with products they learned to love in their youth. But Caroyln Freeman of Revelation Marketing 10 reckons Britain could be on the verge 11 of a marketing surge directed at the grey pound, “similar to what we saw with the pink”. The window will not remain open forever: soon the baby boomers will start to ail 12, and no one else alive today is likely to have such a rich retirement 13.
　　公司总是要比地方机构晚一步发现这个问题。他们痴迷于伦敦，并在欣赏日益增长的老年人不断提升的经济地位方面显得很迟钝——老年人通常被错误认为只会购买年轻时就认定了的产品。但来自Revelation Marketing（启示营销）的卡罗琳·弗里曼推测英国可能处于瞄准老年人钱包的营销边缘，“与我们从婴儿身上看到的潜力相似”。这么一个机会不会永远处于空窗期：很快婴儿潮世代的人年岁将会增长，而今天也再没有其他人会拥有这么好的退休待遇。
　　Meanwhile, with the over-50s holding the purse strings 14, the towns that draw them are likely to grow more and more pleasant. The lord mayor of Manchester, Sue Cooley, notes that decent restaurants and nice shops spring up in the favoured haunts of the old, just as they do in the trendy, revamped boroughs 15 of London. Latimer House, a Christchurch furniture store full of retro clothing and 1940s music, would not look out of place in Hackney. Improved high streets then entice 16 customers of all ages.
　　同时，由于50岁以上的人群手握着钱包，吸引他们的城镇正在变得越来越令人满意。曼彻斯特的荣誉市长苏·库利指出受老年人青睐的高档餐厅和精致的商店正在崛起，正如在伦敦时髦、改造过的街区一样。拉蒂摩之家，一家摆满复古服饰、播放着40年代音乐的克莱斯特彻奇家具店，在哈克尼也不会显得格格不入。改进后的商业街可以吸引各个年龄层的顾客了。
　　Indeed, gentrification and gerontification can look remarkably 17 similar. Old folk and young hipsters are similarly fond of vinyl and typewriters, and wander about in outsized spectacles. Some people never lose their edge.
　　确实，中产阶级化和老年化看起来惊人的相似。老伙计和年轻潮人都喜爱和打字机，并都戴着大号的眼镜在外闲逛。有些人永远风华正茂。