VOA双语新闻：阿富汗大选时间差凸显不确定性

　　Piling yet another delicate issue on top of Afghanistan's already numerous problems, the Election Commission has presented the country with a dilemma 1. President Hamid Karzai's term is up in May, yet the commission has ruled that no election is possible before August. Security and politics have clashed with law and the constitution, and it is not yet clear which will win.

在阿富汗人面临的无数问题中又加上了另一个敏感的议题，选举委员会给阿富汗提出了一个进退两难的选择。卡尔扎伊总统的任期于5月结束，可是选委会决定在8月前不可能举行选举。安全和政治的问题同法律和宪法发生了抵触。目前还不清楚哪一方最终能够赢得胜利。

What was President Hamid Karzai thinking in trying to schedule a snap election?

对于安排一个迅速的选举，卡尔扎伊总统是怎么考虑的呢?

On the surface, at least, the president appeared to be simply trying to head off a constitutional crisis by moving the presidential election, already scheduled for August 20, to April. After all, his term is up in May. An August election not only violates the Afghan constitution, but theoretically leaves the country without a president for three months.

从表面来看至少卡尔扎伊就是力图通过将已经安排在8月20号的选举提前到4月举行，以此化解这一宪法危机。无论如何，他的任期5月结束。8月举行选举不仅违反阿富汗宪法，在理论上，阿富汗也将有三个月没有国家元首。

But nothing is ever simple in Afghanistan. Kamran Bokhari, an analyst 2 with the private intelligence firm Stratfor, believes Mr. Karzai was hoping to gain the advantage of a quick election while he still has some political clout 3.

不过对阿富汗来说，任何问题都不简单。卡姆兰·伯卡利是私营情报公司斯特拉特弗机构的分析师，他认为卡尔扎伊总统希望在他仍然具有一定政治影响力的时候举行一次迅速的选举，这样能够对他有利。

"Karzai has kind of seen the writing on the wall because the Taliban are rising and that the best-case scenario 4 is, 'you know, I will be part of an eventual 5 deal that will involve the Taliban and what not, and I won't be the top dog [highest authority].' So he was threatening that, you know, 'I have to hold on to what I have before I deal with something else.' So he dropped this date," said Kamran Bokhari. "But the problem with this date is how can you have elections in such a short period of time?"

“卡尔扎伊在一定程度上预见了这个不祥之兆，因为塔利班在卷土重来，最好的结果是，‘我将参与包括塔利班在内的谈判并达成最终解决方案，如果我将不再是最高领导人，会产生什么后果呢？’。他是在威胁说，我必须坚守目前地位，然后我才能处理其他的问题。因此他不再坚持所确定的退位时间了。但是这个时间所带来的问题是，怎么能在这么短的时间里举行选举呢。”

How, indeed. Even in developed countries, the logistics alone of organizing a full-scale national election in less than 60 days are extremely difficult. Trying to do so in a poorly developed country beset 6 by an armed insurgency 7 in winter weather, they are impossible, ruled the independent election commission as it ordered the polls to be held in August.

这的确是个问题。就是在发达国家，用不到60天的时间来安排筹备一次全面的选举也是极为困难的。而在一个发展落后的国家，再加上武装暴乱份子在严冬季节的围困，这就更不可能了，独立的选举委员会作出这样的判断，并将大选推迟到8月举行。

The U.S., NATO, and the U.N. have all welcomed the August 20 date because it gives the international community the necessary time to deploy 8 additional forces to Afghanistan for election security.

美国、北约以及联合国都赞同8月20号举行选举，因为这可以给国际社会必要的时间来部署增援部队到阿富汗维持选举期间的安全。

The Obama administration is engaged in an intense review - in fact, several different reviews - of U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Kamran Bokhari says the election date controversy 9 underscores the dilemma the U.S. faces regarding Mr. Karzai.

奥巴马政府正在加紧评估美国在阿富汗的政策，事实上，正在同时进行几项不同的评估。卡姆兰·伯卡利说，选举日期的争议凸显出美国在卡尔扎伊问题上所面临的两难境地。

"The system revolves 10 around the individual," he said. "Karzai is the point man. From a U.S. foreign policy point of view, Karzai was our guy. So if you tamper 11 with that system at such a crucial juncture 12 you're only creating more problems. And let's say you don't tamper with that system. It just devolves into a chaos 13 because of infighting and whatnot. Then you have a major problem. How can you build upon something when that very foundation is shaky?"

“这个体系围绕着个人运转，卡尔扎伊是中心人物。根据美国外交政策观点，卡尔扎伊是我们的人。因此如果你在这个关键的时机打乱了这一系统，你就是在制造更多麻烦。假如你没有打乱这个系统，但由于内斗及其它不可知的问题会导致一个混乱的局面。那你就面临着一个重要的问题，你怎么能够在一个已经动摇的基础上再加以建筑呢?”

Former EU Special Envoy 14 to Afghanistan Francesc Vendrell believes the U.S. has grown cool toward Mr. Karzai.

前欧盟阿富汗问题特使弗朗西斯科·本德雷利认为，美国对卡尔扎伊开始冷淡。

"I would say that they are not opposed to other candidates emerging, that's for sure," said Francesc Vendrell. "Whether they are actively 15 looking for someone else, that's another matter. But I would imagine that they are considering possible scenarios 16 and that they are not as devoted 17 to Karzai as the previous administration was."

“我认为，他们并不反对其他竞争者浮出水面，这是确定无疑的。但他们是否在积极寻找另一位人选，那就是另外的问题了。我可以想象，他们在考虑各种可能，他们不再像前一届政府那样全力支持卡尔扎伊了。”

Afghanistan has only had one leader since the Taliban government was toppled in 2001 - Hamid Karzai. He has said he will run for another term. But surveys show that many Afghans are disillusioned 18 by corruption 19 and what they view as lackluster governance by the Karzai administration. James Dobbins, who was President Bush's first special envoy to Afghanistan, says Mr. Karzai's luster 20 has faded somewhat.

自从2001年推翻了塔利班政权以来，阿富汗只有一位领导人，那就是卡尔扎伊。他说过他要参加下一任竞选，但是民意调查显示，很多阿富汗人因为腐败以及卡尔扎伊政府管理平庸而对他的幻想破灭 。美国布什政府的首位阿富汗特使詹姆斯·多宾斯说，卡尔扎伊的光环已经有些黯然失色了。

"His popularity has fallen but it's still above 50 per cent," said James Dobbins. "He certainly has the greatest name recognition in the country. He has a continued base of support. I mean, most Western leaders would be happy to have a popularity rating that high. So I don't think one can count him out. Nevertheless, his popularity rating was probably 80 per cent three or four years ago. So it's fallen significantly."

“他受欢迎的程度已经减弱，但是仍然高于50%。他在阿富汗当然还是名声显赫。他一直都有支持的基础。我认为，多数西方领导人都喜欢有这么高的支持率。因此我认为他不会被踢出局。不过他受欢迎的程度三、四年前可能是80%。因此明显地出现了下降。”

What happens when Mr. Karzai's term is up in May is not clear. Parliament might pick an interim 21 president who may or may not be Mr. Karzai.

卡尔扎伊五月任期结束时会发生什么情况目前还不清楚。议会可能会挑选一个临时总统，这可能是也可能不是卡尔扎伊。

It is widely expected that the reorganized Taliban will try to disrupt the elections. But analysts 22 say the uncertain political situation also raises the question of what international forces in Afghanistan would - or would not - do if there is unrest against Mr. Karzai - not from the Taliban but from domestic political opposition 23.

舆论广泛认为卷土重来的塔利班将试图扰乱这次选举。但是分析人士说，这种不确定的政治形势也会引起国际部队的疑问，那就是如果不是塔利班而是本国政治反对派发起了反对卡尔扎伊的动乱，那么驻阿国际部队要不要采取什么行动呢？ 这也是国际社会要思考的问题。