VOA双语新闻 - 中国经济增长因出口下降显著放缓

　　The World Bank and a leading Washington research group say China's economic growth rate is slowing significantly, mainly as a result of reduced demand for its exports.

世界银行和华盛顿的一个主要研究机构表示，中国经济增长率正显著放慢，这主要是由于对其出口需求降低所造成的。

In its latest forecast, the World Bank says growth in China will slow to 9.4 percent this year - down from nearly 12 percent growth in 2007. The bank says economic growth will be even slower in 2009, probably no more than 7.5 percent.

世界银行的最新预测指出，中国经济增长将从2007年的百分之12放慢到今年的百分之9.4，该组织称，到2009年，中国经济增长将进一步放慢，有可能不超过百分之7.5。

Nicholas Lardy, a China specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says growth will slow even more - to about six percent in 2009.

但是，“彼得森国际经济研究所”的中国问题专家拉迪说，中国经济增长放慢的幅度要更大，到2009年时增长率将只有约百分之6。

"So roughly, China's growth has fallen by half - from peak to where we are now," he said. "This is by far the fastest deceleration of economic growth in any time in the 30 years since reform in China began in 1978."

他说：“粗略估计，中国经济增长从高峰下跌到目前水平，跌幅为一半。到目前为止，这是中国1978年改革开放后的30年中经济减速最快的一次。”

Fred Bergsten, Director of the Peterson Institute, says even with slower growth, China accounts for most of the world's economic growth.

不过，彼得森国际经济研究所的主任伯格斯滕指出，即使在经济放慢的情况下，中国仍然是世界经济的主要增长点。

"China's is the world's second largest exporter [after Germany and ahead of the United States] and is by far the largest trade and current account surplus country, with foreign currency reserves not only the largest in the world, approaching $2 trillion, but twice the amount of Japan, the next largest on that category," he said.

“中国是世界第二大出口国，也是迄今世界最大的贸易和经常项目盈余国家，其外汇贮备接近两万亿美元，不仅是世界上最多的，而且是居于该类别第二位的日本的两倍。”

Bergsten praises China's recently announced emergency stimulus 1 program, calling it a major contribution to maintaining domestic demand when the global economy is slowing.

伯格斯滕还对中国最近公布的紧急经济刺激计划表示赞许，他称这个计划在全球经济放慢的情况下为保持中国国内需求起到了重要的促进作用。

Researcher Nicholas Lardy says China needs to permit a faster revaluation of its currency to remedy global imbalances.

彼得森国际经济研究所的研究员拉迪说，中国应该允许对人民币币值作出更快调整，以弥补全球货币不平衡的局面。

"The problem here is that the undervalued currency sends a mispricing signal to the market," he said. "It boosts up profitability in the tradable goods sector 2, which is mostly manufactures, and we have had over the last five or six years a doubling of investment going into the manufacturing sector."

他说：“问题是，货币估值偏低向市场发出了一个错误的标价信号。它提升了可交易货物领域的利润，这大多是在制造业，过去5到6年中，我们向制造业领域的投资增加了一倍。”

But Lardy is not optimistic that with a difficult global environment China will allow a faster currency appreciation 3.

但是，拉迪对在艰难的全球环境下中国允许人民币更快升值不抱乐观态度。