28年后的生活大猜想

 　　当下，全球城市化进度迅猛。在城市人口超过全球人口总数一半的21世纪初叶，“城市”成为上海世博会的主题别有深义。

　　Today, the world is rapidly urbanizing. With half of the world population expected to live in cities by the early part of the 21st century, the Shanghai 2010 World Expo’s focus on a better city bears profound meaning.
　　28年后的城市生活又将会是什么样子？这里是一些假设：一些事物即将出现，另一些则将消失。
　　What might future cities look like 28 years from now? Here are some scenarios 1: things to come, things to go.
　　洁净世界 Zero waste
　　垃圾处理是许多城市的顽疾之一。除一些可循环利用的垃圾之外，其余废弃物都是通过填埋或燃烧的方式进行处理，这样一来势必污染环境。塑料垃圾被深埋地下几十年都无法降解。全球垃圾产生速度要远远超过垃圾处理速度。
　　Waste disposal is one of the biggest headaches for cities. Apart from recyclable waste, everything is buried or incinerated, only to pollute the environment. Plastic waste remains 2 underground for several decades. The world produces much more garbage that it can dispose of.
　　如今在世博会上，所有垃圾都被送到压缩站，经过分类、过滤、净化、除臭、压缩后，最终排放到指定地点。在北京阿苏卫地区，人们将厨房垃圾转化成有机肥，用于小区绿化。
　　Now at the Expo, all waste is delivered to a compression station where the waste is sorted, filtered, decontaminated, deodorized and compressed before finally being disposed of at designated spots. In Beijing, people living in the Asuwei area turn their household waste into organic fertilizers which are used to grow plants at residence communities.
　　春运将成为历史
　　No more transportation problems during Spring Festival
　　春节是中国人最重要的节日，人们纷纷返家过年，无数中国人为此头疼不已。超过20亿人次出行，造成“买票难，返乡难”的局面。
　　The Spring Festival, the most important Chinese holiday when everyone returns home, has caused headaches for millions of Chinese. More than 2 billion people travel at the same time, making obtaining travel tickets and the journey difficult.
　　但28年后，春运不再是难题。到2020年，中国铁路营运里程将达到到12万公里以上，形成一个覆盖全国90％以上人口的快速客运网。到那时，中国大部分地区都已经是城市，人们不必到别处就业，这样一来就不会出现这样大规模的人口流动了。
　　But in 28 years, Spring Festival travel may not be a problem at all. China plans to have more than 120,000 kilometers of railway and a rapid transportation network that will serve 90 percent of the population by 2020. And because most of China will be cities, people will not have to go to other places to find a job, so migration 3 will no longer be so large-scale.
　　报纸将消失 Newspapers to disappear
　　美国学者菲利普?迈耶预言，2043年将成为报纸的末日。日本《每日新闻》原总编歌川令三则确信报纸将于2030年消失。
　　American scholar Philip Meyer predicts that newspaper will come to an end in 2043. Utagawa Reizou, former editor-in-chief of The Mainichi Daily News, believes that the newspaper will be gone in 2030.
　　这些预言可能使得新闻出版业忧心忡忡。英国国内报纸发行量普遍下滑。日本各大主流报纸债台高筑。美国的报纸发行总量和广告收入双双下降，多家报纸停止印刷。
　　This kind of prediction may worry those in print news business. In the U.K., the circulations of national newspapers are declining. Major Japanese newspapers have gone into debt. In the U.S., declining circulations and ad revenues have forced several newspapers to stop printing paper editions.
　　传媒大亨默多克认为，未来媒体势必依靠网络互动。将来，电子报可以直接通过网络到达用户的手持终端上。读者将与记者和编辑深入交流。信息传播速度更快捷。
　　Media tycoon 4 Rupert Murdoch thinks the future of media relies on interaction through the Internet. In the future, digital newspapers will be sent to portal web terminals through wirelessly 5. Readers can discuss issues with journalists and editors. Information will move faster.
　　石油消失 Oil to run out
　　2009年8月，国际能源署首席经济学家法蒂赫?比罗尔表示，全球石油枯竭速度已超出预期，未来5年全球可能面临石油供应紧缩的局面。
　　In August 2009, Fatih Birol, chief economist 6 of the International Energy Agency, said that oil is running out faster than expected and that the world will likely feel the tightness in supply in the next five years.
　　科学家已经找到了石油的替代品，包括煤、天然气、太阳能、核能甚至是水。仅海底“可燃冰”就够人类使用1000年。
　　Scientists have found substitutes for oil as fuel. Coal, natural gas, solar power, nuclear power and even water can replace oil as sources of energy. Flammable ice reserves alone can support humans for the next 1,000 years.
　　但受石油枯竭影响最大的是石化行业。现存以石油为原料的产品超过5000种，石化行业对人类生活具有广大且深远的影响。一旦该行业受到石油的影响，势必波及社会生活的方方面面。
　　But if oil runs out, the petrochemical industry will suffer the most. More than 5,000 products are made with oil, and the industry exerts a vast and profound influence on people’s lives. If it is affected 7 by oil, the impacts will be relayed to society as well.
　　近视眼镜将退出视野 Glasses to disappear
　　近视遗传率高达89%，也就是说近视主要由基因决定。科学家们已找到诱发近视的基因，并通过对此基因的控制来治疗近视。
　　The heritability of myopia is as high as 89 percent, indicating that myopia is determined 8 by genetics. Scientists have found the genes 9 for myopia and by controlling them, may be able to cure myopia.
　　相关词汇
　　circulation 发行量
　　decontaminate 净化,排除污染
　　deodorize 除臭
　　filter 过滤
　　heritability 遗传可能性
　　incinerate 焚烧(废物)
　　myopia 近视
　　profound 深远的，巨大的
　　scenario 推测
　　substitute 替代物，代用品