PBS高端访谈:伊拉克军队开始对伊斯兰国进行反击

 　　WILLIAM BRANGHAM, PBS NEWSHOUR ANCHOR: We're turning now to the threat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Just a few months ago, some U.S. officials worried that ISIS fighters could actually overtake Baghdad, but there are new signs of confidence in the fight against the Islamic jihadists in Iraq.

　　For more, we are joined from Grand Rapids, Michigan, by Douglas Ollivant, a partner with Mantid International.
　　Doug, welcome back.
　　I understand you spent a good deal of time in Baghdad. What is it like in Baghdad today?
　　DOUGLAS OLLIVANT, MANTID INTERNATIONAL: The atmosphere in Baghdad was very positive, both among the Iraqis and with many of the U.S. forces at our embassy.
　　I think what most struck me in Baghdad was the sense of normality of life. People are going about their business. They're shopping. There are traffic jams because everyone is out shopping and going to work and going to where they need to go.
　　When you go to Baghdad airport, the security is tight, but you get there, and there are lines. There are people flying all over the world to and from Baghdad — just how much life is going on, even though the front in some places is not too far away.
　　BRANGHAM: President Obama recently approved the sending of another 1,500 troops, which is basically a doubling of the U.S. force there.
　　How much of the recent changes that you witnessed would you credit to U.S. forces involvement there?
　　OLLIVANT: Well, I think external forces, both the United States and — we have to be candid 1 — Iran's intervention 2 have greatly assisted the Iraqis with pushing back the Islamic State. With coaching from these outside powers and, of course, with U.S. air power in support, both the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga, both of which did not look very good — let's face it — in the initial push of the Islamic State into Iraq, have made some fairly serious gains over the last couple of weeks.
　　In Salah Al-Din and Diyala, the Iraqi army has pushed forward. They broke the siege at Beiji refinery 3. And in the north, the Kurds have been able to push a little further, in towards Mosul.
　　BRANGHAM: I'm curious about the Iraqi Army because, you know, we spent years and billions of dollars trying to create a reliable force, and when ISIS first showed up, much of that force was defeated or vanished into thin air. But you seem to feel that they are doing a better job now and are able to stand up a little more effectively.
　　OLLIVANT: Well, I think some more reliable troops have been brought from the south, troops that are very devoted 4 to the Iraqi state. But part of this, I think, is the army that we built for the Iraqi army. This was an army that was built to be a police garrison 5 force. And that's what we built it for. And then when it faced this Islamic State army that came in and pushed through it, this was an opponent for which they were not prepared.
　　Now, we don't want to downplay the very real problems with the Iraqi army — the corruption 6, the lack of training, the siphoning off of money. There are very real problems with the Iraqi army that we don't want to downplay. But there is some thought that if we focus this new Iraqi army on this new problem set that they're facing, that we could have some different results in the not-too-distant future.
　　Now, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. They're not going to beat the Islamic State next month. This is still a 12 to 30-month endeavor. But the signs right now are good.
　　BRANGHAM: A lot of our fight in Iraq, obviously, is against ISIS. They're not just in Iraq but they're also in Syria. Do you have any sense, any sense that the successes that you've seen in Iraq could possibly translate to success in Syria?
　　OLLIVANT: Unfortunately, no.
　　In Iraq, we have the basis of a political solution. Now, there's a huge uphill climb in Iraq — to get reconciliation 7 with the Kurds, with the Iraqi Sunnis in the north, and we can't downplay how difficult that is. But there's a very real possibility that that could happen if everyone plays their cards right.
　　In Syria, there's no way that I can tell you a story, however implausible, about how the politics in Syria might come back together in a way that produces an outcome that would be OK with us. I mean, let's be candid — the most likely outcome were the Assad regime to fall in Syria is the take of Syria by the Islamic State and/or the Nusra Front, the official al Qaeda affiliate 8 in Syria, which sometimes gets lost in the talk about the Islamic State, but is nonetheless a very real — you know, official al Qaeda affiliate in the country.
　　So, the politics in Syria are just much, much more difficult.
　　BRANGHAM: Douglas Ollivant, thank you very much for joining us.
　　OLLIVANT: Thank you, William.