Business Channel 2007-10-19&10-21, 美联储再警告

Scripts:

Bernanke did argue that the fed had taken a fairly decisive step against those downside risks in Sep. by reducing interest rates half a percent, so I wouldn't necessarily say, uh, as a result of his comments last night that it, it makes a rate, another rate cut in October, a done deal. Indeed we feel that the Fed will probably leave rates on hold and will only adjust rates down further, if some of the perhaps more gloomier assessments 1 of the economy prove correct.

Well, he did say, did he not ? that he was ready to act again, should the situation occur like that?
Well, that’s correct, I think that was obviously a reference to the situation in the financial market, it's the fed has made it pretty clear that some of the stresses and strains that we are seeing in the financial markets were effects behind the fed’s decision. But at the same time, as again as Bernanke suggested himself there seemed to be some degree of normality coming back to markets. So that provided that continues again, we feel that the fed will, will just keep its powder dry on, on another rate cut for now.

And is it not a little bit worrying when you have Ben Bernanke himself, saying that the ultimate implications of the credit crunch 2 on the broader economy remain uncertain, shouldn’t, shouldn't things be getting a little clearer at this stage?

Well, problem of course is that you are reliant on some economic data that is always by its nature somewhat historic, it takes time for the collection of data and the interpretation 3 of data. We've obviously had a fair amount of data from the August period. Um, and we will be getting soon, obviously, more, more data for September, but I think when you look across that data, obviously you see the weakness in the housing that Bernanke refered to, but in other areas of the economy, employment, consumer spending, now things will actually stay a little bit more solid than perhaps the fed might have anticipated back in September, and again that gives us hope that, or expectation that the fed would probably not reduce interest rates later this month.

And what do you make of this so called super-fund that is on the front page of the FT again today? Is this super fund to plan that helps to ease the markets, these banks that are getting together to build up this multi-million dollar fund, is that a good thing, is that gonna make much difference to get some more certainty and calm in the markets?
I think it’s a confidence issue. If that's the sort of development that brings back confidence, then it may well be something that is a good thing, and though the fund itself might actually not be sort of exhausted 4, but obviously, if financial market tensions escalate 5, then it may be a fund that perhaps proves inadequate 6, so it very much depends on confidence, and whether moves like that, or moves from policy makers 7 can restore confidence in the markets, so now I think the confidence is coming back, it’s very slow and it could be set back again, but for the moment, things are probably still just heading in the right direction.

Notes:

Keep one's powder dry on sth: get prepared for sth to come