2006年VOA标准英语-Iraq and Scandals Put US Voters in Sour Mood

By Peter Fedynsky
Washington, DC
25 October 2006
 
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Americans go to the polls on November 7th in a midterm election that could give opposition 1 Democrats 2 control of Congress.  As VOA's Peter Fedynsky reports, no single issue is likely to determine which party wins or loses.

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Americans elect their congressional representatives and one-third of the senators every two years and presidents every four years.  This staggered system often gives control of one or both houses of Congress to one party, and the White House to another. 

President Bush is confident that his Republican Party will remain in the majority on Capitol Hill. "I still stand by my prediction we'll have a Republican Speaker and Republican Leader of the Senate. And the reason I say that is because I believe the two biggest issues in this campaign are, one, the economy -- and the economy is growing. The national unemployment rate is 4.6 percent."

Mr. Bush says the second issue is national security.  Public opinion polls indicate weakening, but generally positive support for his administration's conduct of the war against terror.  However, public perceptions about the Iraq war could offset 3 the president's claim of a growing economy.

Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion analyst 4 at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, DC, says one of those areas is … the economy.

 
Karlyn Bowman  
  
"Americans are quite pessimistic today.  I think the war in Iraq has cast a pall 5 over their feelings in a lot of areas, so you see pessimism 6 in areas not related to the war in Iraq. Pocketbook issues are always important in off-year election campaigns and all election campaigns, and I think those issues are central.  Most Americans do not think the economy is doing very well.  They're pretty satisfied with their own situation but worried about fellow workers."

Similarly, Bowman says voters appear satisfied with their own representatives, but unhappy with other members of Congress.  The institution has been rocked by a series of scandals involving top Republicans.  Influential 7 lobbyist Jack 8 Abramoff admitted bribing 9 members of Congress.  House Majority Leader Tom Delay was indicted 10 on charges of illegal fundraising.  And Mark Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus 11 on Missing and Exploited Children, resigned after revelations that he sent sexually explicit 12 emails to congressional pages. 

 
Steven Wayne (file photo) 
  
Steven Wayne, professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, says these scandals have particularly dismayed Christian 13 evangelicals, a key Republican constituency that has strong feelings about moral and ethical 14 issues. "It's not likely that they'll come out and vote Democratic.  But it is likely that they might not come out and vote, and if a significant segment of the Christian coalition 15 decides to stay home in this election, that will really hurt the Republicans."

 
Stuart Rothenberg (file photo)
  
Political analysts 16 say no specific issue is likely to determine the November election.  But Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a non-partisan political newsletter [The Rothenberg Report], says a number of issues could tip the balance in various states or regions. "Prescription 17 drug benefits.  Health care.  The larger healthcare issue could be a significant factor in some races where there are senior citizens, older populations such as Florida.  Immigration could well be an issue and we're not quite sure how it's going to play."

This issues pits border control against the demand for cheap labor 18, particularly in states close to Mexico.

Elsewhere, layoffs 19 are an issue in the industrial Midwestern states like Michigan, where tens of thousands of autoworkers have lost jobs.  And South Dakota is conducting a referendum on a state law that bans all abortions 20, even in cases of rape 21 and incest.

With the absence of any single national issue, Georgetown professor Steven Wayne says November's election could revolve 22 around the voters' mood.

"The mood is sour, the president is disapproved 23 by more people than he is approved.  Congress is disapproved by many more people, almost two to one, than they are approved."

President Bush, however, is not on the ballot 24 and Americans do not elect Congress, but rather its individual members.  Analysts say while most incumbents 25 are likely to be re-elected, a shift of just a few seats could give the opposition Democrats control of one or both houses.